In what has marked the entirety of the second Trump Administration, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) plunged sharply again in April. The LEI for the US fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8% decline in March.
The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.
What is most telling is that almost all 10 components of the LEI dropped, fueling the overall decline. Only three of the components were positive – leading credit index (up 0.02); manufacturers’ new orders (non-defence capital goods, excluding aircraft), which was up 0.03, and manufacturers’ new orders of consumer goods and materials, which rose by 0.01.
All other categories declined, with the most significant drop in average consumer expectations for business conditions, at -0.33. And the S&P 500 Stock index fell by 0.24.
The LEI’s six-month growth rate declined further as well – now hovering just above the recession threshold.
The U.S. economy is faltering under Trump and his chaotic policies.
All indications are that the times are trending towards more economic pain for the American consumer. Prices in many categories continue to rise, and hours worked are declining.
The Administration has promised to deliver a Golden Age for America, characterized by jobs, lower prices, and a booming economy.
In a May 15 White House Article entitled “President Trump’s Policies Keep Paying Off,” the Administration lists five companies that have announced plans to expand.
While these companies likely had expansion plans already, as most successful companies do, the Administration wasted no time in claiming responsibility for these plans.
The White House stated that these companies’ expansion plans were “in addition to the trillions of dollars already secured in President Trump’s second term — investments that will bring tens of thousands of new, high-paying jobs to communities across the country as President Trump ushers in the new Golden Age.”
Yet, to date, nothing in the economic data supports their claims.
There haven’t been economic gains, booming jobs, or lower prices.
It all adds up to a recipe for a recession, further straining American households.
Hardly a ‘Golden Age.’