Yesterday, in what can only be described as a delusional post to Truth Social, Trump pumped his imaginary Golden Age of America with the following message:
“Our Nation is staging one of the greatest and fastest comebacks in history. In just four short months, we are respected again, respected like never before, and just wait, with many Trillions of Dollars of Investment in Plants and Factories, until you see the numbers on GROWTH. This is, indeed, THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA!!!”
Interesting that Trump would choose to post a message about growth and investment in manufacturing the day before a key manufacturing metric was to be released.
Unfortunately for Trump, the economic data does not support his claim of the ‘Golden Age of America.’
This morning, the US Census Bureau released April Durable Goods Orders.
The Durable Goods Orders data measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items. A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish, while a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish.
New orders for manufactured goods in the US plunged in April by 6.3% from the previous month to $296.3 billion in April of 2025, the sharpest drop since January of 2024.
As expected, the data also showed that March was an anomaly. Clearly, there was a pull forward of orders in March to try to avoid Trump’s chaotic tariff policy.
The Census Bureau stated that the results trimmed the revised 7.6% surge from the previous month, pressured by the start of the blanket 10% reciprocal tariffs in the period and a softer demand for goods following the front-loading of orders in the previous period.
Leading the decline were orders for transportation equipment, which plunged (-17.1% to $98.8 billion), mainly on non-defense aircraft and parts (-51.5% to $18.1 billion) as tariff concerns drove airlines to halt demand for Boeing aircraft, which only received eight orders. Additionally, orders for capital goods fell sharply (-14.6% to $101.4 billion).
Limited growth and productivity, accompanied by decreased manufacturing orders, will only lead to worsening economic conditions in America.
Clearly, the economic data shows that manufacturing in America is not currently in a ‘Golden Age’ but instead regressing to something more akin to a dark age.