The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in August 2025 to 98.4. Signaling a weakening economy, which has declined at a faster rate over the past six months compared to the previous six-month period. The LEI fell by 2.8% over the six months between February and August 2025, compared to just a 0.9% decline between August 2024 to February 2025.
The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
- Leading Credit Index™
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
August saw the most significant monthly decline since April 2025. Only two components were positive in August stock prices and the Leading Credit Index.
The Conference Board noted that persistently weak manufacturing new orders and consumer expectation indicators, as well as labor market developments, were major contributors to the August decline – with an increase in unemployment claims and a decrease in average weekly hours in manufacturing.
Ultimately, the decline suggests that US economic activity will continue to decelerate.
A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in the first half of 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and likely into the first half of 2026, as shown by The Conference Board’s data.
American consumers and workers should be wary of what the coming months hold if the Leading Economic Index continues its downward trajectory, as more economic pain may be forthcoming.