In what is seen as one of the strongest indicators of where the U.S. economy is heading in the short term, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)  provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term.

Yesterday’s index release showed that the US continues its downward trajectory with the index declining by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8.

The continued decline is significant as it resulted in the LEI falling by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the –1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.

Basically, the short-term economic outlook is far worse than it was in 2024.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, stated in the Board’s release, “For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month. 

Ultimately, had prices not rallied, the economy would be in even worse shape.

Prices are still rising; those in the lowest income brackets often do not have funds invested in the Stock Market, thus the benefit of stock market rallies is irrelevant to them.

What it all means is contrary to the current Administration’s claims that life is better in America now; the reality is that for those most vulnerable in society, life is just getting even more expensive and precarious.